The best case scenario for Nov will not happen as it took all but one trading day for the market to penetrate 1375. The closing trade was buying the Nov 1375 at 16.2 and selling the Nov 1400 at 4.6.
Both of the Oct options expired when the market opened this morning for a total profit of $1090. This marks the fourth straight month of profit and our portfolio’s winning percentage of 100% stays in tact. Our positions are now 7 for 7. This brings our total realized gain to $2900. Looking forward:
There are 3 likely outcomes for our Nov position.
- The market will correct from here (1366) and will realize $1118 of profit. Statistically and technically, however, this is not a likely outcome.
- The market moves above 1375 but does not pass 1400. In this case the Sep 11th trade would cost us about -$1000 while the Sep 21st and 25th trade would gain $772 for a net loss about $230.
- In the worst case scenario, the market would past 1400 by Nov 17. In this case all three Nov positions would suffer a loss in the $4000 - $4500 range.
The current EV of the Nov position is -472.35. Yikes!
The delta is -76.74.
The combination of high risk in our portfolio and low volatility will likely prevent us from establishing a Dec position until one or both factors improve.
NAV: $11.78
YTD%: 17.77%
Annualized: 47.33%
Both of the Sep options expired when the market opened this morning for a total profit of $890. This marks the third straight month of profit and our portfolio’s winning percentage of 100% stays in tact. Our positions are now 5 for 5.
Looking forward:
- Our Oct position is very solid with about $500 in unrealized profit. The current Expected Value is very healthy at +$521.29. The risk is on the call side at about 11% (1375 strike).
- Our Nov position is not so great. It currently has an unrealized loss of about $200 and a call side risk of 20% (1375 strike). This risk amount is very similar to the pressure we had to deal with during the lifetime of the Sep option contracts. Fortunately the Nov contract is only a single contract. The overall EV for the month of Nov is still positive at $55.90.
- We have about $8000 available funds that needs to be allocated into Nov and will:
- wait for improvement in the risk situation
- a better entry point (risk-reward ratio)
- We will also expand the experiment of this strategy by adding an additional account. This strategy has worked well for me for 3 month now. So I’ll help ONE friend and try to duplicate the same successful results for his portfolio. This will also help us gather more data and further validate the strategy.
NAV: $11.72
YTD%: +17.2%
Annualized: +61.56%
Both of the Aug options expired today for a total profit of $647.
This frees up funds bringing our available fund total to $9811 that we will roll into Oct options next week. I did not enter into a position with the available funds today because the volatility is very low.
NAV: $10.95
YTD%: +9.54%
Annualized: +47.05%
The Jul options expired today for a total profit of $273.
NAV: $10.35
YTD%: +3.48%
Annualized: +27.63%
