Both of the Oct options expired when the market opened this morning for a total profit of $1090. This marks the fourth straight month of profit and our portfolio’s winning percentage of 100% stays in tact. Our positions are now 7 for 7. This brings our total realized gain to $2900. Looking forward:
There are 3 likely outcomes for our Nov position.
- The market will correct from here (1366) and will realize $1118 of profit. Statistically and technically, however, this is not a likely outcome.
- The market moves above 1375 but does not pass 1400. In this case the Sep 11th trade would cost us about -$1000 while the Sep 21st and 25th trade would gain $772 for a net loss about $230.
- In the worst case scenario, the market would past 1400 by Nov 17. In this case all three Nov positions would suffer a loss in the $4000 - $4500 range.
The current EV of the Nov position is -472.35. Yikes!
The delta is -76.74.
The combination of high risk in our portfolio and low volatility will likely prevent us from establishing a Dec position until one or both factors improve.
NAV: $11.78
YTD%: 17.77%
Annualized: 47.33%
